Why Ryan Pepiot has the makings of a Cy Young winner
Ryan Pepiot throwing some heat at Coors Field. Photo Credit: David Zalubowski/AP
On April 7, Ryan Pepiot became the first visiting pitcher to put up a single-game statline of double-digit strikeouts with zero runs or walks at Coors Field.
This is admittedly a very ESPN-style cherry-picked stat, the type that places hoopers like Thaddeus Young in the same category as Lebron James and Michael Jordan. Even if you don’t make much out of this stat (as you probably shouldn’t), you cannot deny how promising of a line it is.
Pepiot was coming off a bit of a rough one against the reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers. He couldn’t consistently locate his arsenal, which resulted in six earned runs. He lacked control with the changeup in particular, despite it being his main selling point as a prospect.Â
As we know, he dusted off the bad start and tossed a very high-quality game in the ballpark pitchers hate most. He was lights out, only allowing three hits and fanning 11. He made Rockies hitters look silly, quieting a lineup that was successful in the previous two games. We’ve now gotten a taste of him pitching up to his pedigree, so the question now is why is he so effective?
Like many of the game’s potential aces, it all starts with his fastball. Pepiot doesn’t throw the high-velocity heater that young studs like Spencer Strider and Bobby Miller do. Velocity is definitely important, but as the Hunter Greene of previous seasons learned the hard way, it isn’t everything.Â
Pepiot’s fastball shape is in that range between great and excellent. The best way to measure the potential of his heater is with induced vertical break (IVB). For those unaware, IVB measures how much vertical movement is on a pitch compared to a hypothetical one thrown with no spin. A fastball thrown with high backspin will appear to have the effect of rising, even though this is not the case. This leads to deceptive fastballs, as ones that appear to rise also appear to travel at a higher velocity from the batter’s perspective. This leads to more swings and misses and lazy pop-ups.
A good IVB tends to be a number above 17 inches. This means that the pitch is caught 17 inches above where it would be if thrown without backspin. In 2023, Pepiot averaged a solid 17.5’ of induced vertical break. This allowed his fastball to be a great tool for getting batters out, especially coupled with his 80-grade changeup. Following his trade to the Rays though, this great heater almost immediately appeared to level up.
Throughout Spring Training there were talks that Pepiot was seeing 20 inches of induced rise on his heater. This potential fastball improvement (and the Rays’ history of tweaking pitchers’ arsenals) had many in the analytics community salivating at what was coming next, expecting starts like the one in Denver.
So you’re probably thinking that his fastball had immense induced vertical break when matched up with the Rockies at Coors.Â
Well, not exactly.
As the altitude is known to cause flyballs to carry out of the park, it also tends to affect pitching shape. Pepiot only saw about 15 inches of rise on it, but he was still able to paint the corners with pinpoint accuracy. He tunneled with the plus-plus changeup really well and ultimately he finished the game with the elite record-breaking statline.
The following starts for Pepiot have shown that he can keep up this pedigree. Yes, even the San Francisco start where he allowed runs in bunches gave fans plenty of reason to be optimistic.
Swings and misses are often viewed as the key to success for a modern pitcher, and Pepiot has been delivering. Against the Giants, he missed 15 bats in only 5 innings of action. His pitching against the Angels warranted 17 whiffs, especially impressive against a hot lineup anchored by an MVP candidate in Mike Trout.Â
Oh and by the way, Pepiot struck Trout out with a perfectly located slider.
The next step for Pepiot is to continue to develop his secondary pitches. The slider has looked nasty this year, and he is even using it more than the changeup. By the stuff+ stat (a grade based on velocity and movement), the slider gets a 121 grade. This means that his slider is basically 21% nastier than the average. Pretty solid for a pitch he barely used prior to this year.Â
Pepiot also notably has thrown two curveballs this year, so maybe a fourth pitch could be in progress. It hilariously grades out at a 187 on the stuff+ scale, showcasing the comedic magic of a small sample size.
Ryan Pepiot admittedly has some work to do before he actually gets mentioned in the conversation for the American League Cy Young. However, he definitely has the tools and the command to do it. Losing Glasnow is tough, but the Rays saw a player they could possibly morph into a new Glasnow, took the flier on him and it appears to be working out.